Jolly Viking, part 1.

NATO HQ 7th December 2017 zulu 0120

warroom

-Gentleman and women, thank you for coming at so short notice. We are now in code orange. Russia has last night dropped a brigade of paratroopers to Uuland that is between Finland and Sweden…

-That is Åland, sir.

-… Ooland, thank you general, and has mobilized it’s Baltic Fleet to Baltic Sea in full force. They are also flying at the international airspace with full weapon loads and we have also satellite images that indicate large Russian military moves at Murmansk, Carelia, Leningrad, Pskov and whole western military district. We assume they will cross Finnish border at any time.

-Finland and Russia is in war? Are they threatening any NATO members?

-Sir, if I may, Russia has not declared a war, yet. Finnish president is not available right now and the Finland’s official reports are kinda not accurate at the moment. They have send one F-18 Hornet over Aland and what we have understood from their military communications, they are kinda confused. The Russian VDV Brigade or lets say, size of a Brigade, is very possibly from Pskov 76th airborne division. We have intel that the 104th Regiment soldiers have all deleted their social media accounts and also Finnish internet is down. Our NATO members have no indication of Russian hostilities at the moment, or let’s say higher than normal. But let’s say this, the amount of energy over Baltic Sea is now so high that it fries any bird that flies…

-So we saw those Russian planes getting to Ouland? Our radars catch that?

-Sir, yes sir. The first ones.

-First ones?

-Well, sir, what they did was, they dropped first company of special forces to Marienhamn airport that took control of it, then they flew in with mixed airplane columns, like normal passenger planes, then Iljushins with equipment and so on. It’s only 30 minutes from Leningrad or Pskov to target zone. They also had special forces at the passenger ferries that travel between Sweden and Finland. We believe these took control of the Marienhamn harbor. Reports are still not confirmed, but there is 4 large landing ships and heavy escort heading now from Kaliningrad to Marienhamn.

-So if we saw it, why didn’t we warn the Finns?

-Well sir, we did. But at that time there was so much activity from the Russian Air Force in the Baltic Sea that it must been buried under the noise. There was 28 fighters 34 passenger planes, cargo and other stuff at the same time, not to mention the 3 Tupolev’s that went over sonic near Danish Straits. And Finns have their own radars, they were active but went suddenly black at 2345 zulu.

-But Finland has 63 F-18’s, they didn’t response?

-It’s little problematic, Åland is demilitarized zone. By the decision of United Nations. Russia raised a question about this special status in UN just few months ago. They demanded a ”international” inspection with the OSCE there and made clear that they will not tolerate any kinda military activity there. Finns got probably scared and hesitate. Besides Finnish Air Force hasn’t use lethal force in over 70 years. They have this ”peacekeeping” mentality strong in their tradition…

-But Finland is responsible of defending that area or is it Sweden?

-Yes, Finns are responsible of that. The people of Aland speak Swedish and their culture is somewhere in the middle. Finns and Swedes have good co-operation and kinda military pact… or lets say that Sweden understands the importance of Finland between them and Russia. But it’s a whole new ball game when Kaliningrad is there. And I mean comparing to the WW2 stuff, if that’s in some of yours minds.

-General, please show the map. It might clear the picture.

balticseaarea777

-Horrible graphics, General. You made it yourself?

-Sir, well… yes. We are waiting until the news break out and use some of their media maps. We don’t want to tell people what we exactly know because then Russia knows what we don’t know and so on.

-Good enough. Gentlemen, you can now see clearly how Aland is critical for us too.

-It’s Åland sir…

-Shut the fuck up general. It is war zone now.

-War zone? Is there any reports of shooting, dead or similar?

-You mean like in Crimea? Communications are poor at the moment but we have some updates on facebook, twitter, insta and so on that show stunned people watching Russian soldiers patrolling at the main streets of Marienhamn. There’s been some explosions here and there, we believe it is just psychological harassment to scare people. One radio amateur was sending S O S and report of Russian invasion but was silenced one hour ago. There is lot of hunting rifles there, we believe some kinda resistance will occur when the morning is raising. It is 0215 zulu, that is 0415 at Ål… sorry, Aland now.

-But Finland will attack, that is illegal occupation isn’t it? I mean Finns have a strong Army, over 200k strong I believe…

-Well, Finns have a strong Army. On paper. I mean they are a reserve Army, they don’t actually have 100% war ready units. Or they have few elements like rapid force type company or two, they can get armed and ready in 24 hours like 2 Battalions, one or two squadrons of F-18’s and some Navy units. On paper they can get over 100k strong Army in 3 or 4 weeks.

-But they have 4 Brigades, Pori, Nyland, Kainy and Sodakylae! Also regiments like communications, air defense, paratroopers and best tanks in the world! Haven’t they prepared for shit like this?

-Well, sir, those are conscript training units that they call Brigades. Or regiments. They can’t use conscripts until they have been trained. Their law also prohibits the use of conscripts in war.

-What? Their law doesn’t allow to use…

-…their conscripts in crises situations. Yes. They have some very problematic things in their system. It is basically the same thing that was in WW2. They have kept it just like Russia has accepted. Only from reserve you can call up an Army. And it has to be done in proper order, people have to be informed months before, they need all kinda preparations like taking trucks, tractors, machinery from civilians, making storages, securing railway hubs, airports and so on. And they are politically kinda messed up. Finlandization has done massive damage there and Russia knows this perfectly. In Russian jokes Finns are always the slow guys who don’t react to anything. I believe they trust in this here too.

-I need to correct you sir, they have a 24 hour 25k strong force that has been carefully selected and very motivated. It is…

-…peanuts. Sir. And it is not at Aland. It is sleeping right now, probably drunk because yesterday was their independence day. That could be why we haven’t found the Chief Commander, President Nyynystoe yet.

-It’s Ninnistoe, sir.

-What ever he is, he is not available. The second in command won’t do any decisions without him.

-Sir! We have a report that Russian Su-27 has shot down Finnish Air Force F-18 over Baltic Sea, near Aland. Pilot has ejected and is being rescued now by Swedish coast guards. It’s on your screens now.

-Goddamn. That’s developing. Was the Finn attacking? Ah, there it is, the Finn has his transponder on, looks like few million people are watching flight radar like shit. Wise move from Finns. They didn’t shoot, did they even have weapons on that plane? Would be really good if they didn’t have any sidewinders on. Publicity is war zone you know…

-General, if I may remind that this is textbook Russian operation. They are creating a no-fly zone just like in Ukraine. I’m pretty sure that in those 4 landing ships are S-400 battalion and that Marienhamn’s airport is surrounded by Gophers, Strelas and other AA stuff. Also you need to look that Baltic Fleet map, they have massive anti-aircraft capability there. Besides the radar activity all along the Finnish border is indicating their S-400’s are hot and ready, the whole Finnish air space is covered right now. I’m quite sure they are grounding all their aircrafts now to avoid losses. And to not escalate the situation.

-Escalate the situation? What do you mean?

-Finns need to buy time. They have been surprised.

-We all have been. Why our intelligence didn’t see this? Where was our reports of Russian military? This is…

-Well, sir, we have reported this possibility many times. One scenario was Gotland, the Swedish Island just across Kaliningrad. In one of our war games they do it just like this, first Aland, then Gotland and Baltic Sea is theirs. In one plan otherwise. Also they might just keep Aland because it is a vital point between Sweden and Finland. Don’t forget that they are creating pressure at North, Murmansk region. Finns have enormous borderline with Russia.

-My God, they are doomed…

-Well, that is their choice, isn’t it? Like they have learned nothing from 1939. Or the other multiple wars there has been on that area. We have offered them membership, just like we have did for Sweden. I’m pretty sure Sweden is already rushing here with their delegates to beg membership.

-Yes, the plan ”Jolly Viking”.

-Jolly Viking?

-Plan B. I’m sure Norway is driving their tanks to Boden, Kalix and Gallivara in few hours. Also Danish Navy is rushing to Gotland. Or should be.

-You mean Nordics are going to war? Bloody hell, Sweden has practically no army at all…

-Yes, that’s why Jolly Viking. Sweden joins NATO in 24 hours. Finland can’t. Country in war can’t join. We can’t. It would mean war with Russia. Sweden instead can. Russia knows this bloody well. They are drawing the Cold War line again. And they are forcing Finland to surrender without war, or massive war. Look at the satellite pictures from Leningrad region, the whole 6th Army is on move. That’s not full yet, but they are rushing troops from all over, looks like Omsk VDV is also airborne at the moment…

-Gentleman, we have now managed to get President Ninnistoe on the line!

-That’s a relief! Hello mr President, this is NATO Headquarters, I am Jens, you remember me?

-Hellou, hellou. I heard you have situation going there?

-Well, hello Souli to you too. Situation you can say, You know that Russia is attacking you right now? Aland?

-Well well… yes, I have reports here. I think it is not good. I strongly don’t like it.

-But this is war? You have declared a war haven’t you? They shot down one of your Hornets?

-Well well, yes and no. It is complicated.

-Complicated? Russian military is on the move towards your borders and now inside your borders at Aland?!

-It’s Åland by the way. And yes and no, like I said, well… it’s pretty early here and we have a great blast last night you know, few drinks and country independent day and I haven’t called Vladimir yet. We need discus with him.

-Need to discus? You know that we are monitoring here a Russian Invasion to Finland? Are you mr president serious?

-Yes, of course serious, all the time, yes. But we have hear other client too. We want hear what he thinks. This can be exercise of something. Mistake. They have map wrong side upside down. They see mistake and invade Gotland instead. Possibility.

-Mr President of Finland, what is your wife’s name?

-Security tricks? Ah yes, of course, no, I am not under Russian gunpoint now. I am in my toilet. Do not want to wake up Jenny, she mad like hell if I speak phone in bedroom. Stupid poets, so sensitive.

-Great to hear. Great to hear. You are sure about this?

-Yes, yes, very sure. I call Vladimir now and call you back then. I have his number on my phone here. We can then see new light on this matter? Okay?

-Mr President, good to hear that you know the situation. But we have to ask you as NATO that are you going to mobilize your troops? Because you know that this affects not only Finland but whole Europe and NATO?

-Yes and no. Possibilities are on the table. Or we need discus. With Vladimir first. He told me to contact him first if this things happen. Accidentally can happen he said last time. And that can resolve with mon… many ways. Cheese is important for Leningrad. Me have to stop now. [click].

-What the fuck we just heard?

-That if Putin buys all the cheese Finland has, they can have Aland?

-That was not a secured line. He knew it. Russians are listening. And we are listening him. Finns are so naive in these matters. And that guy is a lawyer. You can never catch him saying anything relevant. And he has to go to Russian Embassy to make that call.

-He is going to avoid that war. He is not that kinda guy.

-But what about other Finns? Parliament? Government? He doesn’t alone decide that thing or does he? Is Finland like Belarussia now?

-That is a fucking good question. General, you have simulated this, what is the predictions of Finnish vs Russia militarily in situation like this?

-Sir… not good. Finland can’t take back Aland. They have no forces for that. It would be a suicide mission against Baltic Fleet and Russian Air Force. Also Russia will push in from multiple points on the east border to tie up Finnish possible forces, if they managed to get up their reserves. That means if Finns manage to buy time for that. And that is possibly what President Ninnisto, sorry Niinistoe, is trying to do. Anyhow if, they manage to get up their troops, 6 Brigades, 12 Battalions and some other elements, it will be a… well, it will be a bloody mess. Finns have some excellent forces that have been in NATO training and some very capable Navy infantry units but those numbers are small. They have stamina and will, but they have not been in war for decades. Russia has been training war all the time. They have time and mass. Finland tries to play this game more politically than militarily.

-So they won’t go to war?

-They are in war, like it or not. They are using this self-deception, again. Bloody Stockholm syndrome…

-You mean Finlandization?

-Kinda same thing. Hoping that the drunk in house won’t beat him again.

-So we have lost Finland? I mean European Union has been attacked and one country is surrendering to Russia? And EU is going to accept that?

-We don’t know that yet. The Lisbon Treaty is tricky. Well, it isn’t tricky but Finns have made it tricky. They can blame themselves for that one. Baltics can’t give them help, military help cause they are NATO. But the Lisbon Treaty says that they can. But Lisbon Treaty doesn’t go over NATO. There is the line.

-The idea of Hybrid Warfare. The bloody idea of Hybrid Warfare has blurred these lines. There will be volunteers from Sweden, Baltic’s and so on. Russia needs to control it’s oil and gas flow at Baltic Sea, if you just look this…

ahvenanmaanetti

-…you see that 40% of Russia’s oil and gas goes through here. Baltic Sea. This map is Finnish Navy officers one scenario of Russia’s military escalating situation at there. Russia controls now 85% of Finnish import-export business. Finland is surrounded. Almost. North Sweden is still open. Norway too but it is a whole new problem now.

-So what is Russia trying to gain here? Why they need Aland? Is it really that important?

-Was Crimea that important? I mean it is practically an Island, has big mental impact but economically a disaster for Russia. Will this make Putin look like more Emperor again? Aland Nash? It was a huge Russian Navy and military bastion for decades for Russia. There was a big war about Aland in 1854 to 1856. British and French Navy attacked there with massive Navy forces, this was part of the Crimean War, idea to cut of Russia’s Navy and sea supply lines. Finland was part of Russian Empire then. Some Russians think still that Finland is their old province. The mental victory could just be enough to Putin. And to kept crawling toward West, and at the same time giving the finger to NATO. And to keep Finland out of NATO…

-But what if Finns goes full bersek? They can do it, right? I mean Hybrid War, yes, it means everything is possible. What if they go and blow up the gas pipe that flows to Europe? What if they do suicide flights to Leningrad’s multiple nuclear reactors? What if they lay mines to the oil routes, prevent traffic to Russia’s Baltic Sea ports? They can also hit Murmansk, there is massive piles of nukes and Northern Fleet? They can cause massive damage if they want to.

-Russia will retaliate just like in Chechenya. That would be a massacre. They will also got a ”perfect” enemy that they can beat and their country will be more united. But if the manage to make Leningrad, okay St.Piter, a nuclear wasteland buy blowing up a reactor… It will be a massive loss. They have a reason to use nukes against Finland then also.

-Sir, new intel just popping up… Group called Alands Freedom has posted pictures of dead Russian soldiers they have ambushed, looks like burning BMD-3 and three dead VDV soldiers. That BMD has a RPG hole in it. Also machine-gun fire at the airport. Tracers in on one video, looks like heavy MG, the are shooting to the air, Finnish drones?

-There might be several drones over Aland right now, Swedish, ours, Russia’s…

-What’s on Americas news?

-FOX News is just breaking their news for this situation, they use that stuff you just saw. CNN is doing the same. They have also that Finnish F-18 downing but they say it is a NATO plane. They clearly don’t know it’s a Finnish one.

-What?! USA news says that NATO plane was shot down buy Russia? Guys, this must be used. Here’s a great chance!

-Chance to what? To get caught lying?

-No, let’s just be quiet and let them believe it was NATO plane. Putin will have some explaining to do. And hope that Finns understands this too!

-But what if Russian pilots gets confused and start shooting down real our planes?

-Goddamn guys, we are military. What is our job? To avoid war when it is on our doorsteps? Are we some fucking negotiators or do we represent force? Do we help the weak against bullies or do we just watch from close how savages do what they want? I say we go in Finland fast, drop airborne to the borders, fly regiments to Baltics, deploy nukes to Norway. Is there other way? Otherwise we look like bunch of fat lazy shitbags without moral and whining nerds…

-You say we surround Aland and Kaliningrad, drive in tanks and other stuff in Finland and show Putin that this stops now? We need Finns to accept this, or more, they need to ask it.

-Yes, exactly. They don’t need to join NATO. This is a ”Coalition of EU under Lisbon Treaty” deployment to secure EU’s borders and help one of their good member’s. Then we just froze the situation and let politicians negotiate the situation. Otherwise we will be forced to watch how Finland slowly gets vanished from the map and EU will loose all it’s credibility. That will be devastating. This can also unite Europe and West in a whole new level. And this is a good war. or deployment. I am sure that Russia won’t dare to kill NATO troops. We won the Cold War. Are we whimps or winners?

-Massive Peacekeeping Operation under UN?

-You said it. Not going to war, instead to prevent it. Then we hit more sanctions and let that Russian bubble pop. Then Finland can join NATO and Sweden is already there and the gray zone of Nordics is safe.

-Well, there is great dangers with these nuclear plants. And Finns are known for tough resistance. If they managed to cut the gas pipe, hit Sosnovyi Bor or other nuke plants, or blow one of their owns against advancing Russian troops… it will be a disaster to whole Northern Europe. I must say there is some idea in that plan. And media will be on our side. This is about…

-Gentelmen! President of Finland is calling!

-Hellou hellou Bryssels! It is Persident Finland here, Sauli.

-Hello Finland. You have called Vladimir?

-Yes and no, very much so, yes. He called me. We talk. Good talk.

-And?

-We are having a joint peace keeping drills.

-What?

-We are havings a joint peace keeping drills operation with Russia. It is exercise. We plant this some time ago. Forget tellings you. Sorry about that.

-You are having a military drill with Russia at demilitarized area?!

-No and yes, complicated sounds but can be easy to explainings. You see, Vladimir told me that they have secret informations about many things. Me for examples, I mean mean, meanings, yes that is the words, meanings that you have been planning to attacks Finlands and that Russia is willing to help in that matter. To keep our indepent. Freedom.

-What are you talking mr president, are you drunk?

-No and yes, well just a little maybe, can still drive a car. Wait, no, can’t drive. Sit can in the car. Make that clear, I am not drunk drivings. Shit in toilet and smoking cigarret. Good American Malporo that is.

-You have clearly violated many things here mr Niinistoe, can you explain why?

-Technically correct may beings. But very explainable also. But I have to wipe now, my wife needs to bathroom. Call you back soon. [click]

-What we just heard? Can some one please explain?

-Sir, if I may, I think he has seen the Norwegian TV drama about Russian invasion.

-What?

-It’s a story where Russia takes control of Norwegian Oil and Gas fields and force them to start production. They kidnap their prime-minister and then release him after EU and others say that they can’t stop producing Gas to Europe. It’s all fictional and has some very naive elements but the main idea is that the Norwegian prime-minister doesn’t want to go for war and tries to negotiate themselves out of it.

-TV? Are you serious?

-We have kept our eyes on leaders and find out some funny stuff about Finland. There is a high element of corruption at the top level, it is cleverly hidden under energy and stocks, ice-hockey and gambling. The Russian nuclear plant deal was our eye opener. We followed some money streams and found this hockey team Jokerit which is owned by Russian oligarchs, some guy called Harkinson and others who have murky stuff. Also inside all parties. You have to remember that only the Green Party in Finland opposed the new Russian nuclear plant. They are also in the other hand also anti-war, anti-NATO people so they didn’t need to be bribed…

-You are saying that Finland is playing both ways?

-Well sir, if that’s how you want to see it then… yes, I’m afraid so.

-But what about the people, the Finns? They will never accept that drill explanation!

-Accept or die. That will be the president Niinistoes message to them at the morning. He knows very well that they can’t mobilize, it only takes one strike to Helsinki to pull out chaos and there is enough GRU and other bat shits in that country that can paralyze it physically. One railroad bridge here and there, Internet is already down, their command structure has so much bureaucracy in it that it takes months to make decisions and so on. Russia learned from Winter War that surprise is the best way. Well, they learned it from Hitler actually. But the idea of giving enemy a warning before attacking is just plain stupid, remember Pearl Harbor? Now when world is little more complicated whit money flying all over the planet and finding the way to politics in a whole new way, we see this.

-There will be riots and possibly civil war for this.

-Finns have a saying that if something should be fail in politics, then it should be internal politics. Meaning that first thing is to be nice with neighbors. Actually meaning that don’t poke the Russian bear. One of the great idiocies of Finlandization or the Cold War era psychic ops that KGB did to them. Now they are reaping the fruits.

-Sir, we have breaking news from BBC, turning on the channel now…

”…just came in from Moscow that 3 Russian soldiers have died in Peace Keeping Drills with Finland at Ahland. Putin’s spokesman said that they are having a joint Peace Keeping Drill to secure the Gas and Oil and Finnish import-export sea traffic against global terrorism and other threats like Global warming. On the other hand we have reports of Russians invading Ahland but Moscow says these are just bad rumors spreading in social media. There was also a malfunction in Finnish Air Force F-18 that crashed to Baltic Sea this morning he said and that Sweden kindly rescued the pilot. The reason for the soldiers death is said to be human error and he says that there is no reason for panic. Finnish president Niinistö has said on twitter that he is deeply sorry for the deaths of Russia’s peacekeepers and that this is a necessary drill to keep Baltic Sea area safe and…”

-Oh my God.

-Yep. There goes Finland. Who would never believed.

-Plan C24.

-What?

-It is in the scenario 24 of the Hybrid War manual 102. We have drilled this once.

-Now I remember. Russia takes Finland, Sweden joins NATO and Russia starts to negotiate that they give Kaliningrad back to Germany. But the situation will be frozen for years.

-That’s perfect to Russia.

-Alright then. Order the troops, contact Sweden Ambassador. I need to make a call to President Clinton…

… to be continued…

… – – – …

This is fiction. All rights reserved. Part one. More will come. Stay tuned… 😉

 

 

 

 

 

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